Overview
Recent events have made the upcoming Lebanese
Parliamentary election the most critical test in
determining the fate of Lebanese democracy movement.
The assassination of
ex-prime minister Hariri and the political
bankruptcy of the Lebanese presidency triggered by
its aftermath, has shifted the state power from the
executive branch to the Lebanese parliament. With
its term expiring on May 31, 2005 the profile of the
existing parliament reflects the influence that
Syrian Intelligence held over the last election in
2000, and consequently is tilted towards Syrian
interests. Such influence is at risk with any new
election that does not go Syria’s way. Indeed, many
agree that Hariri’s biggest threat to Syrian
dominance over Lebanon was his ability and intention
to gain a majority in the upcoming election in favor
of the opposition and in turn utilize it to loosen
Syrian grip over Lebanon.
Faced with the sweeping momentum of the
pro-democracy movement, the Syrian regime and their
allies in Lebanon have shown a determination to
delay or postpone the election by paralyzing the
creation of an independent government and bringing
to standstill the political process until the
expiration of constitutional deadlines. Greatly
strengthened by huge popular support, the opposition
realizes that any delays to the election would
enable the Syrians to sabotage the opportunity to
elect Parliamentary representatives who will be able
to carry on the Lebanese people aspiration for free,
democratic and independent Lebanon.
The success of the US role in support of a
sovereign Lebanon and the momentum of our diplomacy
in reviving the forces of democracy in the Middle
East are also at risk if such elections are subject
to Syrian influence, postponement or manipulation.
A free, fair and timely Lebanese Parliamentary
election should be the benchmark for the success of
our policy.
Background
When the 1989 Taif Accord ended Lebanon’s 15 years
war, the country had not held parliamentary
elections since 1972. The accord included an
imperfect compromise designed to balance democracy
with sectarian peace a compromise that has since
been ignored by a series of pro-Syrian governments.
According to the agreement the Parliament has a term
of 4 years and constitutes a body of 108
parliamentary seats,
which was later increased to 128 under Syrian
pressures, divided
equally between Christians and Muslims and
proportionately between the denominations of each
sect. Voters are assigned to electoral districts.
Each district is represented by a group of Deputies
(Members of Parliament) who generally run as members
of a list for their district. Districts were
originally drawn around Lebanon’s six administrative
regions (Muhafazats) to appeal to a broader
cross-section of religious communities, and in that
sense were intended to reflect equal representation
of Lebanon demography. The Taif Accord also included
the agreement to issue new election laws following
the redistribution of the administrative subdivision
and subsequently the creation of new and revised
electoral districts.
In the three elections since the Taif, new electoral
laws have been arbitrary fabricated contrary to the
spirit of the Accord to ensure a pro-Syrian outcome
rather than equal and fair representation. In 1992
and 1996 elections, some districts were manipulated
to produce the results Syria has wanted by
gerrymandering certain parts of the country into
tailor-made districts that shrank or expanded to
benefit pro-Syrian candidates. For the 2000
election, however, the Taif provisions were entirely
ignored, and the country was divided into fourteen
electoral districts primarily based on fitting them
around pro-Syrian candidates and diluting votes
opposing them. In northern Lebanon for example,
large unconnected areas with vast demographic
differences were folded together into one district
while in other areas, much smaller districts were
given the same number of representatives. In fact,
out of the 64 Christian representatives in the
current parliament, only 30 were elected from
Christian districts. The other 34 came from
districts annexed into larger Muslim ones, and
consequently were elected by Muslim votes, mostly
favorable to Syria at the time.
Manipulation of the Electoral Process
The unequal and irregular division of the electoral
districts was not the only flaw in the past three
elections. The abuses of power by government
officials to influence elections have been rampant.
Nabih Berri, Speaker of Parliament and leader of the
Shiite Amal party, forced the recruitment of tens of
thousands of his party members in the various
sectors of the government. Michel El-Murr, former
Minister of the Interior, current Deputy Speaker of
Parliament and a relative of President Emile Lahoud
has employed large groups of his supporters in the
police and government agencies. Both use their
extended network of indebted followers to influence
and bribe considerable amount of voters.
Another method used to great effect in the past is
the falsification of voters’ cards. In areas that
need an infusion of loyalists’ votes, interior
ministry officials prepare and print voter cards
bearing the name of people who are either dead or
living outside the country. As was the case in 2002
Metn by-election, thousands of these cards were
issued and were virtually unchallenged due to
prohibiting the opposition’s representatives from
entering polling stations.
One of the most controversial governmental decrees
in the last 15 years is the one granting Lebanese
citizenship to more than 200,000 mostly Syrian
Muslims. In a country that is almost 4 millions in
population, the newly naturalized “citizens”, many
still living in Syria proper, are typically driven
in overfilled buses to polling stations to cast
their ballots in favor of pro-Syrian candidates.
In its annual report after the last election,
“Reporters Without Borders” listed several
violations, related to censorship, the prosecution
of reporters, arbitrary legal actions against
journalists and the shutdown of opposition media
stations MTV and Radio Mont Liban. The government’s
practice has been to intimidate and prosecute any
members of the opposition in using the media to
voice their platform while utilizing government
controlled media to continuously hammer away
pro-Syrian candidates’ propaganda.
Yet, in another form of electoral manipulation, the
2004 election was postponed until May 2005 in order
to guarantee that the Presidential election, or
extension as was the case, is decided upon by the
current pro-Syrian Parliament.
The draft electoral law
Following the internal and international upheaval
against the unconstitutional extension of President
Lahoud term, the government issued a draft electoral
law intended to appease some opposition leaders. The
draft law adopted smaller districts (Qadaa) in line
with the 1960 law versus the larger (Muhafazat)
districts. The 1960 law is generally viewed
favorably by the Lebanese based on its success in
electing a Parliament that embodies the direct
relations between candidates and voters.
The draft still awaits the approval of the Cabinet
and would be passed into law by the final
endorsement of the Parliament.
Following are the highlights of the draft law:
Ø
Number of
representatives & districts
Parliament is composed of 128 MPs elected for a
four-year term. The MPs are elected and represent
the following 26 Electoral districts:
1.
Beirut District 1: Mazraa,
Mosseitbeh, Ras Beirut, Dar Mreisseh, Mina al- Hosn
and the Port area.
2.
Beirut District 2: Bashoura,
Zqaq al-Belat, Rmeil, Medawar and Saifi.
3.
Beirut District 3: Achrafieh
neighborhood.
4.
Akkar.
5.
Tripoli district including the city of
Tripoli, the town of Mina and Qalamoun.
6.
Minyeh-Dinnieh.
7.
Bsharri.
8.
Zghorta.
9.
Koura.
10.
Batroun.
11.
Chouf.
12.
Alley.
13.
Baabda.
14.
Metn.
15.
Kesrouan.
16.
Jbeil.
17.
Sidon.
18.
Zahrani.
19.
Tyre.
20.
Jezzine.
21.
Nabatieh.
22.
Marjayoun-Hasbaya.
23.
Bint Jbeil.
24.
Western-Beqaa-Rashaya.
25.
Zahle.
26.
Baalbek-Hermel.
§
Voting is public,
confidential and on equal footing between all
voters.
§
All candidates should
be Lebanese and registered in voters' lists, having
at least 25 years of age, with full civil and
political rights.
§
Naturalized candidates
cannot be elected before 10 years have passed on
their naturalization.
Ø
The call for voters
§
The public is called
to vote by a decree issued 30 days prior to General
Election. Such election should be held within the
last 60 days preceding the expiration of the current
term of Parliament.
§
The election date is
set for one day for all districts - a special date
could be set for each district if required by
security issues, provided that elections take place
in all districts within the deadlines set in the
previous paragraph.
Ø
Candidacy
requirements and eligibility
The following individuals are prohibited from
running or occupying a seat in the Parliament:
1.
Active members of the
military and security forces unless they have
retired or resigned six months prior to elections.
2.
Members or directors of
public institutions, municipality or religious
organization earning a salary from the public
treasury.
3.
First and second-grade civil
servants, mayors, deputy mayors, magistrates and
public institution chairmen, directors and members
unless they submit their resignation 15 days after
the law has been passed.
Ø
Election campaign
and expenses
§
Candidates are limited
to LL150 million ($100,000) in campaign expenses.
Any candidate who exceeds the limit or offers gifts,
stirs sectarian strife or political sensitivities,
uses intimidation, cheating, coercion or threats
will be subject to prosecution and his or her
candidacy annulled.
§
Government officials
will determine the locations of electoral
advertisements during the election campaign. It is
prohibited to place any advertisement or candidates'
pictures in any other place than the set locations
and to raise banners extending from one side of the
street to the other. Civil servants, municipality
employees and mukhtars are prohibited from
distributing voting papers or any publications
favoring or opposing a candidate.
§
It is prohibited to
distribute publications favoring or opposing
candidates on elections day. Candidates'
representatives are prohibited from keeping voters'
identity cards or electoral cards before the
elections and on elections day.
§
All audiovisual media
and nonpolitical press are prohibited from
broadcasting electoral propaganda during the run-up
to elections, at the risk of having the concerned
institution closed for a maximum period of 30 days
and fining it a sum ranging between LL10 million and
LL100 million.
§
Campaign expenses
allowable by law include the opening of offices, the
holding of gatherings, rallies and public meetings,
holding banquets for electoral purposes, publishing
and distributing publications and leaflets in the
form of hard copies, ordinary mail or email, hanging
pictures, posters and banners, buying and renting
transportation means to transport voters, offering
food and shelter on the eve of the elections and on
election day.
§
Electoral bribery is
prohibited and includes donations and assistance by
a candidate under social, health, education, sports
and charity pretexts to associations, private
institutions, hospitals, orphanages, clubs that are
located within his electoral candidate, unless those
donations have been offered for a period of three
years before the elections. Bribery includes gifts
or cash given to candidates’ supporters or voters.
Ø
Campaign media
§
Private and public
audiovisual media and press must comply by the
directives issued by the National Audiovisual Media
Council regarding campaign advertising.
§
Each individual
candidate is given, upon a written request, 5
minutes of television time and 19 minutes of radio
time per week. Each list of candidates is given a
period ranging between 20 and 30 minutes weekly in
radios and televisions.
§
Each candidate is
given a 1/12 surface of daily newspapers or one
quarter of a page in weekly publications. Electoral
advertising is limited to the internal pages of
publications only. Candidates are prohibited from
attacking one another in the media or in
advertising.
§
The "Committee for
Monitoring Electoral Advertising and Media in
Publications" will be formed and will supervise the
compliances of candidates and publications with
campaign laws. It will be headed by a magistrate,
and includes a representative of the Press
Federation, a representative of the Journalists
Union, a representative of the Information Ministry,
and a representative of the Interior Ministry.
§
The "National
Committee for the Monitoring of Electoral Expenses"
will be formed and will supervise all financial
operations related to electoral campaigns. A
magistrate will preside over the committee which
will include an auditor from the Auditing Department
and a representative of the Interior Ministry.
§
Any candidate
violating any part of the electoral law will be
subject to prosecution and having his or her
election nullified.
Loopholes
and risks
Ø
Constitutional
timeframe
Lebanese law states that a minimum of 30 days should
lapse between the date when the decree for voting is
issued to the public and the date of General
Election. It further states that the general
election should be held within the last 60 days
preceding the expiration of parliament term. The
term of the current parliament expires on May 31,
2005.
The norm has been to split the election between the
last four Sundays prior to the last Sunday of the
parliament term. The reason given was the
administrative difficulties in conducting the
election in one day. However, due to the unusual
circumstances this year it is feasible to conduct
the upcoming election in one day, such as Sunday May
29, 2005. Consequently the draft law should be
approved by a new cabinet and passed by the current
parliament and then a decree for vote is issued by
April 28, 2005.
In case the new law does not pass within the
constitutional timeframe, the government might
attempt to revive the 2000 electoral law. This law
allows much more advantage to the pro-Syrian
government in again diluting a considerable amount
of the Opposition votes in districts fashioned
around strongholds of Syrian supporters.
Therefore, it is imperative that the new law be
passed expediently. The obvious maneuvers of the
Syrians and the government to withhold the
appointment of new cabinet are a belligerent plan to
sabotage the fair chances of the Opposition and
designed to lead to either the revival of the more
Syrian favorable law or to completely postpone the
election until new realities prevail.
Ø
The supervision of
the election by the existing government
There are four governmental entities authorized to
supervise the electoral process and thus able to
affect its outcome. It is worthy of note that all
four are currently directed by staunch Syria
supporters.
1.
Ministry of the Interior is
responsible for issuing voters’ lists and has the
ability to change the spelling of many names making
those voters unable to cast their ballots. The
ministry is also responsible for issuing voters
registration cards within a very limited time span.
Delays have been frequently used in the past to
prevent opposition voters from the ability to vote.
Lastly, the police are under the supervision of this
ministry and historically have been used to
“safeguard” voting stations from opposition
supporters and cover any wrongdoing inside.
2.
Ministry of Justice
supervises the final tallying of the votes through a
body of judges. Historically, these judges have been
notorious in hoaxing many results and nullifying
wins by the opposition. The ministry also has the
responsibility of looking into any complaint filed
on the day of election which in reality has given it
the right to arbitrary taking action against any
candidate deemed not to be in compliant. Further the
ministry is entitled under the elastic electoral law
to shut down any media outlet deemed as promoting a
certain candidate. Such decisions are considered
final and not subject to appeal as was the case with
MTV in 2002.
3.
National council for the
Audiovisual Media supervises media outlets and their
compliance with the electoral law. The council is
empowered to prosecute and shutdown any offending TV
or radio station not adhering to the government
interpretation of the law. This council is
constituted of ten members all of which recently
appointed by the government from among the elite
crop of Syria’s beneficiaries.
4.
The Constitutional Council is
the ultimate authority in any appeal related to
election law and process discrepancies.
Historically, this council was utilized to cast a
legal cover on the government practice to pass
tilted and unjust laws. Additionally, the council
has the final say in all complaints brought by a
losing candidate against a winning MP and can
nullify the result of any election. This was done
repeatedly in favor of pro-Syrian candidates in the
elections of 1996 and 2000. If fact, in the
by-election of 2002, this council refuted the
election of the opposition candidate who won with
over 50% of the votes and instated in his place
another candidate who won a mere 2% of the vote. In
the last few weeks, three new members were appointed
to this council; one is the brother of President
Emile Lahoud and two other judges who have been
previously disbarred for questionable practices.
Ø
Vagueness of some
law provisions
There are three specific clauses in the current
draft also present in previous laws, clauses 63, 68
and 74 which address the media, campaign expenses
and campaign bribery. All are written in such a
vague way that allows arbitrary interpretation by
the government. As was the case in the past, these
clauses could be legally stretched to intimidate and
prosecute any opposition candidate.
The essence of these provisions stand contrary to
the fair spirit of the democratic process and by
prohibiting the media from dealing with the
election, it deprives candidates from properly
reaching their intended constituents. Furthermore,
subjecting campaign results to the whims of
corrupted officials presets the conditions for wide
spectrum of election fraud. Considering the stakes,
it is almost assured that given the chance, present
officials will use all means at their disposal to
reach an outcome that guarantees the continuation of
the status-quo.
Recommendations
The essence of the political whirlwind in Lebanon
today is the ability of the people to lift Syria’s
dominance over Lebanon and to rebuild the state’s
institutions to represent the will of the people.
Given that the Lebanese have resolved to reach
these objectives through peaceful means, the only
path available to them is through the constitutional
process of parliamentary election. This process has
become the only measure of changing the
Syrian-dependent dynamics of the Lebanese state.
However, the popular forces moving this process
forward still need our accelerated assistance to
battle the stumbling block of a corrupt and
desperate regime. To that effect, specific
requirements should be focused on to ensure a free
and fair process:
Ø
Syrian
non-interference
§
All Syrian armed
forces must leave Lebanon prior to the
initiation of the electoral process. This includes
all intelligence services and remnants of security
agencies that might be left behind.
§
Syria must stop interfering in the
political process whether directly through her
appointees in the government and political parties
or though poisoning the political climate by implied
and direct threats to individuals and public
security.
Ø
Government
neutrality
§
A new cabinet made of
highly regarded individuals who are not running in
the election must be established quickly to oversee
the process. Heads of the four government entities
controlling the process should be replaced with
neutral and capable individuals along with replacing
the heads of the six main security agencies.
§
The latest night time
bombings in Beirut underline the attempt of
the government agencies in sabotaging public
security. This is coupled with the recent issuing by
the Lebanese defense Ministry of thousands of
licenses to carry arms. These licenses are valid to
whoever carries them and therefore are an indicator
of plans to provoke some major unrest.
§
It should be made
clear to all officials and parties that acts of this
nature, causing harm to individuals and properties
and disrupting the peace will result in criminal
investigations by world bodies and will lead to
prosecution and imprisonment of the culprits.
Ø
Passage of the draft
electoral law
§
The law is still
pending the approval of the cabinet whose
appointment is being dragged on. The law must be
approved and pass the existing parliament prior to
April 28, 2005.
§
The draft law is the
right frame for conducting the election provided
that Articles 63, 68 and 75 are either replaced or
corrected. These articles provide an ambiguous
mandate to the government to be used in prosecuting
opposition’s candidates. Additionally, Article 68
prevents the media from performing its critical task
of being the public eye in observing and sorting out
the electoral process.
Ø
Political freedom.
It is ironic that the current government hides its
ill intentions by the veil of public requests for a
cabinet of unity, considering that one pillar of the
opposition Mr. Hariri, was sent to his grave few
weeks ago, another pillar Dr. Samir Geagea is still
in the defense department prison after 11 years of
captivity and General Aoun is still forbidden from
returning to Lebanon. The fact is public healing and
true democratic process cannot be implemented
without the return of General Aoun, the release of
Dr. Geagea and the elucidation of Hariri’s
assassination. Disbanded political parties such as
the Lebanese Forces party should be able to operate
without intimidation and prosecution.
Ø
Voters’
registration.
The illegal naturalization of thousands of Syrians
has played a pivotal role in the past in swinging
key districts. Voters’ registration should be
conducted in way that guarantees a level playing
field for all candidates and thus past practices of
utilizing those made-to-order voters should not be
permitted. All individuals carrying Lebanese ID
cards under the illegal naturalization decree should
be prohibited from receiving voters’ registration
cards.
In addition, serious consideration should be given
to the legitimate right of the thousands of Lebanese
expatriates to vote from outside Lebanon.
Ø
Monitors and
observers.
Outside monitors and observers are crucial to
oversee the electoral process. This can be
accomplished by having international monitors
involved early in the process to get acquainted with
the complicated local scene. Such monitors would
need to issue frequent reports before the elections
regarding their concerns about the process. During
the election, observers would be tasked with
carefully documenting any fraud they witness.
Ø
Key challenges that
need close supervision are:
1.
Secrecy of the voting
process. In years past security officers were
stationed inside polling stations and voters were
asked to vote in full view of them, without any
curtain to protect their secrecy, making those
voters subject to bribery and intimidation.
2.
Legitimacy of election
outcome. In past elections, authorities rejected
valid wins by opposition candidates and used an
array of legal poison pills to insert loyal
candidates in their place. Monitors will be able to
certify the legitimacy of every candidate.
3.
Monitoring the application of
legal measures. It is likely that some form of
campaign spending limit will be passed in the new
law. Past restrictions were used to invalidate some
elections while turning an eye on massive financial
support by Iran and Syria to others. Close
monitoring is needed to ensure that whatever
restrictions are there, will apply equally to all
candidates.
4.
Certification of voting
registrations and insuring accurate tallying of all
votes will lend validity to the process and prevent
some of the most common fraud.
Conclusion
The new parliamentary Lebanese election will
determine the fate of Lebanon’s freedom and
democracy for many years to come. This crucial
event, as was the case in Iraq, will have wide
implications on other countries in the region and
will greatly enforce the notion that freedom is on
the march. The ability to perform a Free and Fair
election is fundamental to liberating Lebanon from
the forces of tyranny and occupation as it is part
of the basic rights of all mankind.
A “Free” electoral process is where human rights
are respected and freedom of speech, freedom of
political expressions, freedom from violence and
intimidation, freedom of assembly and to hold
political rallies and the freedom to vote in secrecy
are all protected by the law and in practice.
A “Fair” electoral process is where all parties and
candidates are given reasonably level playing field.
Guaranteed rights through applicable laws, equitable
opportunities for the electorate to receive
political information and an independent,
non-partisan electoral organization to administer
the process should all be indispensable parts of the
process.
Given its turbulent history of foreign
interventions and fraudulent elections under Syrian
occupation, the Lebanese now face this test with
tremendous amount of will and hope. In this endeavor
they also face the determination of a desperate
tyrannical regime capable of committing atrocities
to cling to their power. In the words of one
pro-Syrian Lebanese minister, Waam Wahab, “…we are
not a charitable organization… it will be impossible
to allow the opposition to win…” implying that all
means will be used to prevent the course of
democracy to proceed. It is up to the free world and
the US leadership to provide the insistence and
protection to ensure that Mr. Wahab and others like
him are not sabotaging the hope and aspiration of
the Lebanese and to see that freedom, sovereignty
and independence become a reality.
