Back
in November 2006, I had sent an LIC paper
highlighting the three major elements of the
confrontation between the Lebanese March 8th
groups supported by Syria and Iran, and the March 14th
groups supported by the rest of the world and by the
majority of the Lebanese.
Later, LIC and ALC presented a policy document
during our meetings with US and UN officials in
March and April 2007, reiterating the aspects of the
conflict within Lebanon, and offering specific
policy suggestions.
As a reminder, those three elements of the
confrontation mentioned were:
1.
Implementation of UNSCR 1701, stripping Hezbollah of
major control in the south of Lebanon and setting a
clear policy of expanding the authority of the
Lebanese State at the expense of the militia rule;
2.
Establishment of the International Tribunal,
threatening the Syrian Regime of severe consequences
if found implicated in the assassination of Lebanese
figures; and
3.
Conducting Presidential elections according to
Lebanese constitutional process, leading to the
selection of the first “non-Syria made” President in
18 years.
Today, after UNSCR 1701 has been gradually taking shape, with
Hezbollah turning from a “resistance movement
fighting the Israeli occupier” in Southern Lebanon
to a “street gang militia” shutting down the
nation’s airport, blocking the main roads and
closing busy downtown Beirut, and after the
International Tribunal was established by the UNSC
under Chapter VII, despite Syrian and pro-Syrian
Lebanese attempts to stop it, the ultimate battle
becomes the battle for Lebanon’s Presidency. This
will decide the future of Lebanon, and could reverse
or uphold all the progress made towards sovereignty
and democracy.
The March 14th group, with its 68 MPs (69
before Antoine Ghanem’s assassination) is planning
to proceed with the elections on time, according to
the Constitution, with no foreign interference, thus
securing a “pro-sovereignty” President.
The March 8th group, with Syrian and
Iranian backing, is working on a three stage plot as
follows:
1.
Before
the election, the main scheme is to eliminate the
majority in Parliament. Physically through
assassinations, politically through forcing
defection from the March 14th coalition
using threats, intimidations and/or bribery.
2.
On the
day of the election, the plan is to block the
Parliamentary Session from taking place using
violent measures, including closing roads, attacking
MPs, staging riots and other similar actions.
3.
After
the election, their strategy is to prevent the new
President from assuming his functions, through
choosing a second President, forming a second
cabinet, and invading state symbols such as
ministries, the Presidential Palace, etc.
All of this is to be accompanied by a vast political
and media campaign warning of dire and extreme
consequences (e.g., civil war, partition) and aimed
at the Lebanese people, at some key local players
like Patriarch Sfeir, and at the international
community, Europeans and Arabs in general, and
France and Egypt in particular; the purpose of which
is to scare them so they would not accept the
election of a majority candidate and they would
pressure the March 14th group to
negotiate a “compromise” candidate.
It is important to note that the position of the
Lebanese Army (LAF) and its intelligence services
remain unclear regarding their disposition to
confront the violent methods of the pro-Syrian
groups.
The Policy of
the US and other allies should consequently and
urgently focus on the following:
1.
State
and reiterate the policy position of supporting a
“free democratic process, on time, according to the
Constitution and without foreign interference”.
2.
Strengthen the resolve of the pro-sovereignty
Lebanese groups and of the legitimate government in
face of the treacherous attempts by the enemies of
Lebanon to eliminate them.
3.
Provide
security and intelligence assistance to protect the
lives of the MPs and cabinet members
4.
Warn
members of the March 8th group, and their
backers, through direct and indirect channels, of
serious measures, if they resort to violence to
obstruct the electoral process. Remind them of the
Presidential Executive Order of August, 2007, and
contemplate other actions.
5.
Attempt
to lure members of the March 8th group
into changing camps, specifically some of the MPs
among the Aoun Parliamentarian Bloc.
6.
Recognize immediately the newly elected President
and express all support and readiness to assist.
7.
Probe
carefully but extensively the position of the LAF,
command, units and intelligence sections, in order
to ensure their readiness to stop any brutal attempt
to steal the Presidency.
The abovementioned steps will have to be closely
coordinated with:
1.
Allies
and Friends of Lebanon, in the UNSC, and among
European and Arab States;
2.
The
members of the March 14th group and the
Siniora Government; and
3.
Lebanese-American groups supportive of this policy.
We are only within days, weeks at most, of this
decisive moment - the election of the new president
of Lebanon - that will determine the future of
Lebanon for years to come. Facing us are ruthless
enemies and murderous regimes determined not to let
this election take place peacefully and
democratically.
We have to stand ready to face them, and immediately
take the necessary measures to counter their scheme
to take over Lebanon.
© 2007
Lebanese Information Center – www.licus.org
